Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
