Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
